The State of Tesla in 2021 Q1
We at Keemut have a way to predict vehicle valuation based on how cars are actually used. Connected cars like Tesla, give a great amount of detail that helps the car owner day-to-day, and now can help them make money by selling their own Keemut reports. In this article, we wanted to share some data on the State of the Market in the United States to give you an idea of how the value of a Tesla is changing over time. As a reference point, in a normal market, a used vehicle would have lost about 4%-6% in the first few months of the year depending on the age, and other parameters.
The Model X is currently not in production, and its value has been holding steady. The Year-To-Date (YTD) valuation has dropped by -3.9% which is in the past at this time would be nearly-4.2%.
Unlike the Model X, the S has seen an uptick in demand during the chip shortage.
Our prediction for the Model S was to follow a similar trend to the Model X for medium to high mileage vehicles, but what are seeing is an uptick in valuation for low odometer models.
Instead of dropping -0.8% in April, The Model S actually went up in value by +0.5% for the low mileage models. This trend is continuing into May and with the announcement that production is delayed for both the S and X, this trend may continue into the coming months. Tax and stimulus checks would not impact low odometer / high value cars as much as the chip shortage where consumers who need a vehicle quickly will be willing to spend more for a high-end car. This is bump in our opinion is based primarily on short-term supply disruption.
Tesla Model Y Used Valuation
The Tesla Model Y is the closest to a unicorn in the automotive space. The Y has routinely sold for above MSRP since the launch and this trend seems to be changing but not as aggressively as we thought. Tax rebates, stimulus checks, and the chip shortage are all contributing factors that make the Y an attractive vehicle to buy, but the demand for this car is rare in the automotive world.
It has dropped 6% Year-to-Date but on average, it is still selling as much as 4% above MSRP! You can buy a new Model Y and resell it for a higher value in some parts of the country. As a matter of fact, we checked on the Tesla website for any used Model Y’s and could not find any. This is why Tesla was able to raise the new pricing of the Y recently.
Tesla mentioned that many of their customers are coming from Toyota, and our Total Cost of Ownership calculator shows that the Y is comparable to price to a Highlander Hybrid. The Model Y has a lower cost of ownership, and is a much better value for the price-conscious consumer.
In the example below, we looked at 2020 model year vehicles for our comparison. Note, the MSRP is for the 2020 pricing, even with the increased 2021 pricing, Tesla will still be a better value.
Tesla Model 3
The Model 3 has been one of the best-valued vehicles across the board, since its launch. Our models were 95% accurate in predicting its depreciation last year and on average it depreciated 10%. In the example below, the Model 3 is down -0.4%. Overall, the variance is a bit more, so having your car connected will give a more accurate value.
How is Your Vehicle Holding Up?
The above data is taken on average, but when you take into account, the battery life, the condition of the car, and its history, many Teslas will be above these prices. We have data from thousands of Teslas on the platform, from ridesharing, taxis, and consumers who use the Keemut platform for many purposes including tracking the value of their vehicles.